Thu
Jul 31 2008
09:23 am
By: R. Neal

Early voting through Jul. 30: 11,521

Party breakdown:

Democratic Primary: 3657
Republican Primary: 8300

Early voting, first 11 days:

2006 Aug. County General: 14,584
2008 Feb. Primary: 16,342

Early voting ends Saturday, and the election is next Thursday, Aug. 7th.

Early voting locations and times here. Note two additional locations and extended hours for last three days (starting today).

Elrod's picture

I voted for Randy Neal for State Rep

Seriously. I couldn't pick between the four bozos for state rep., so I wrote in "Randy Neal."

Are you ready for Nashville?

R. Neal's picture

Is Nashville ready for

Is Nashville ready for Bubba?

Heh. Thankfully, I didn't seek or get the 25 signatures or whatever it is needed to qualify as a write-in that gets counted. But thanks for your vote anyway.

R. Neal's picture

P.S. Does that mean you

P.S. Does that mean you voted in the Republican primary? And does that mean R. Neal got recorded as an "R" write-in? Oh, no! My non-existant political career is over before it never intended to get started. Hope the DNC doesn't yank my credientials for the convention! Heh.

bill young's picture

70K

70,000 is my pick for total vote.
Early Vote + absentee = 12,386.
Need 57,614 more votes to get there.

Johnny Ringo's picture

FWIW, I'd put the over/under

FWIW, I'd put the over/under at 40k.

Don Daugherty's picture

My bet: 46,000.

My bet: 46,000.

R. Neal's picture

Put me down for 58,000

Put me down for 58,000 total.

bill young's picture

Turn-out

4 factors of why early vote was higher Super Tuesday:

1.presidential primary
2.Lots of county primary candidates..lots of family & friends.
3.The media was banging the drum louder.
4.Total turn out was 92K..which we will not get in this election.

Granted in August of '06 early vote was higher & turn-out was closer to R's 58k projection than my 70K.But I believe voters were confused in '06 & stayed home.I dont think thats the case this time.In my opinion voters are undecided which leads to lower early voting turn out & higher election day turn out.

As I've said I just dont have a feel for this one & I could be way too high projecting 70K.But I'm going to stick with it until the voters prove me wrong.

R. Neal's picture

voters are

voters are undecided

Interesting point. There are two good choices in many of the races. And some not so great choices in others. Maybe that's a factor. I've been waiting, but I'm going in a few minutes.

Anonymously Nine's picture

Where are the dems?

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
4468
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
9999
NO PRIMARY DECLARED
525
_________
TOTAL
14,992

As of this morning.

Does this look like you thought it would? I thought there was a revolution to "throw them all out"?

That ratio looks lopsided.

reform4's picture

Crossover Voters?

Could be a lot of crossover voting going on, given that we don't have significant contested races (other than Padgett/Tuke).

R. Neal's picture

Maybe some crossover voting

Maybe some crossover voting going on in the TN House primaries? (I know there was some over here in Blount Co.)

bill young's picture

Fun party or crying in our beer?

If early vote + absentee = 25K I'm still in the hunt for 70K total vote.

Until there is a sea change in Knox County the state Republican primary will have more total vote than the state Democratic primary.

But you must keep in mind this is a COUNTY GENERAL.Democrats have always needed Republican state primary votes in the county general to win county wide races.

The Republicans have really been hitting sticking with the top of ticket.Which has given the traditional Republican voter pause..do I vote party or Black Wednesday?Plus in the 4th county commission district there are two hot races & voters are undecided.The 4th is huge turn out district.

Also who are those folks voting for that did not vote in either primary? In close races those votes could be the difference.

If Republican state primary voters break for the Democrats..we will have a helluva party Thursday night...if not..I reckon we'll be crying in our beer.

VOTE DEMOCRAT!

CHANGE FOR THE BETTER!!!!!!!

RayCapps's picture

There aren't many "compelling" primary races...

from either side. I'd say folks are declaring according to their traditional party preference, which is still primarily Republican in these parts. That doesn't necessarily mean folks are voting (R) in the general county election. Wishful thinking? FWIW, I also happend to declare "Republican" this time to vote for Thomas Baer for the House. Padgett/Tuke feels like picking the sacrificial lamb to go against Lamar to me. (Others may differ to be sure). That doesn't mean I didn't vote for a lot of (D) identified candidates for county offices. I declared "Democrat" in February to vote for Obama, btw.
Party loyalty... blech!

bill young's picture

County general/state primary

Just looking around at some returns.

First,the county general election for Sheriff et al are usally held in conjuction with the state primaries for governor.

In looking @ returns from county general elections I found something interesting.Hotly contested gubernatorial primaries produce much higher turn out...67K in '94 & 60K in '02...but only 49K in the ho hum primaries of '98 & '06.

So I reckon my 70K prediction could be a fairy tale.Large turn outs in the County General are fueled by hot gubernatorial primaries & we aint got no gubernatorial primary this time.

Now upsets have happened with big turn out & low turn out.

In '94 Schumpert(D) upset Kessel(R) in a high turn out race by 1,500 votes.OTH,in '98 Fansler(D) upset Howser(R) in a low turn out race by 1,900 votes.

Stan G's picture

Planned to Vote Today

at the County Courthouse where I have early voted for years, but now almost seven years after 9/11, they've decided that citizens who vote at the courthouse unlike citizens who vote at other locations are potential terrorists who need to endure a security check. It irks me to be treated as a potential terrorist by homeland security personnel who have never spent a day of their lives in the military, so as a matter of personal principle I chose not to vote. After seven years without an incident, IMO there is just no reason to justify going through the pockets and belongings of every citizen who enters a government building.

Johnny Ringo's picture

Judge shot at courthouse in

Judge shot at courthouse in Reno.

Judge, three others, shot at courthouse in Atlanta.

Man shot at courthouse in Seattle

Man shot at courthouse

I can give you many more, but you get the picture. The security at the courthouse isn't about "Homeland Security", it's about courthouse security, and it happens to be a prime consideration at the state level at the moment, with a fair amount of money being granted to the various counties to improve courthouse security. The truth is that nuts with guns and grudges are attracted to government buildings a lot more often than they are to churches.

Not everything is a BushCo conspiracy. Take a moment to talk to one of those PBA or Sheriff's department officers and ask them what kinds of things they have found when people try to walk into the building. You might find it to be an eye-opener.

rikki's picture

failsafe

There are serious legal concerns with putting uniformed agents between a voter and the poll. As long as the security check is not an identity check, most concerns are satisfied, but voting is a privileged act. It deserves special consideration. Voter intimidation is the end result even if the only concern is losing your favorite pocket knife. A voter may have written or printed materials they do not want a sheriff's deputy to see. Stan's principle is worth standing by.

The county should move the polling place outside the security perimeter.

Johnny Ringo's picture

Have you been to the

Have you been to the courthouse and seen it? The security consists of an x-ray machine, just like every machine you have to walk though to get on a plane. There's no ID check, and the security is in place 365/year, whether voting is going on or not. If anyone is so paranoid or intimdated that they won't put up with that, they can go to any of the other 6 early voting locations and bypass all security, or wait until election day, vote in their precinct and again bypass security.

And because IIRC the county MUST operate one early voting location in the Courthouse, they can't get the voting boothes out of the security zone unless they drop all security in the building during the voting period.

rikki's picture

The security check at the

The security check at the Old Courthouse is new. It's just like the one right next door for the City/County Building, but this is a new issue with regard to that polling place. Maybe it was an issue in February.

As we learned with the East Town Mall voting site, the Election Commission has to move a polling place if it can not guarantee the rights of voters and candidates.

My argument is two-fold:

1) It has long been established that voters can not be compelled to show identification in order to vote. Your signature all that is required. Regardless of whether security checks normally involve identity checks (which I know they do not), the fact that they could be abused must be considered. If, for example, you have to show ID so they will give you your pocket knife back when you leave, the legal line gets smudged.

2) In addition, voters may choose to bring materials to the poll to help them remember who to vote for. They may not want a deputy to see such papers, and they have the right to a secret ballot. We also have the right to be secure in our persons, papers and effects from unreasonable searches, and there is nothing reasonable about making someone take paper out of his pocket.

Moving the polling place outside the security perimeter is trivial. Just rope off a path to the polling room. That's what they do at the Blount County Justice Center, or whatever the building on Lamar Alexander Pkwy is called. If you are going to court, keep left through the metal detector; just paying a fine, keep right to the service windows.

R. Neal's picture

It has long been established

It has long been established that voters can not be compelled to show identification in order to vote.

That's what I thought too. Yet over here in Blount County, the early voting location we went to had big signs: "ID REQUIRED."

I guess somebody ought to let them know that ID is only required for first time voters who registered by mail.

Otherwise, according to the State of Tennessee Division of Elections:

All other persons who registered to vote in person or have voted before must only present evidence of their signature or sign an Affidavit of Identity.

So maybe the ID REQUIRED sign is to avoid having to deal with all those "affidavit of identity" forms or something.

SnM's picture

a little more than that

Security at the courthouse consists of an x-ray machine and a metal detector and removing everything from all of your pockets and removing your belt, and standing there holding your shorts up while security examines your belt for hidden compartments, which is both discomfitting and embarrassing (or it shoud be for whoever decided it was a necessity).

It's overzealous.

Stan G's picture

I don’t believe it was an

I don’t believe it was an issue in February; but, as Johnny Ringo should be aware, the entrance marked “Vote Here” then was at the side of the building on the lower level. It leads directly to the voting site. Currently, there is a deputy posted at that entrance directing voters to the front entrance security checkpoint. There is no reason why the stairs leading to the main floor of the courthouse could not be roped off. The stairs are open and in plain view of the election officials. A person attempting to get to the second floor courtrooms would have to cross the main lobby in sight of the deputy posted at the checkpoint.

Can’t recall whether they do an ID check at the City County Building and the courthouse. It is common practice at the John Duncan Federal Building. I do recall going through the courthouse checkpoint to renew my automobile tags and hearing one of the employees mention a key so they must have examined my wallet which I had placed in the basket.

Interesting given Johnny’s comments and comments posted to Knoxviews earlier this week that one of the articles Johnny linked to concerned an individual who “opened fire with a semiautomatic handgun as he started to go through a security checkpoint at the courthouse …” It goes on to state, “The Eagle Scout and 1996 Brandon High graduate constantly read the U.S. Constitution, his mother said. He was enamored with the passages on how citizens should arm themselves, take care of their own and not have police and government interference, …”

Thanks to a reminder posted on Knoxviews this morning, I spent time at the McClung Museum this afternoon – a much unappreciated Knoxville resource – and voted at the University Center where I was greeted by five or six election officials who were eagerly awaiting my arrival, any voter’s arrival.

Johnny Ringo's picture

I suppose again that they

I suppose again that they could simply seal off that side entrance and make everyone go through the front door, but the principle remains the same - a decision has been made by PBA and the Sheriff's Department (which by statute is responsible for courthouse security) that no one should enter either the CCB or the Old Courthouse without passing through a metal detector. To the best of my knowledge they do not check IDs when you enter, although the voting officials generally do when you go to vote. Regarding rikki's concern about carrying election materials into the Courthouse, unless they are printed on metal scolls they would not be a problem - simply keep them in your pocket. You're not required to strip down or empty your pockest - just to remove anything that might set off the metal detector.

Other than rikki's fairly theoretical concerns about voter intimidation, I've never heard any complaints about this system, except for the general complaints you always get when people are required to walk though metal detectors. Greg Makay might have more insight into this though.

SnM's picture

Johnny wrote: "You're not

Johnny wrote:

"You're not required to strip down or empty your pockest - just to remove anything that might set off the metal detector."

see my reply to your post above; fwiw, removal of all items from all pockets has happened the last three times I've voted -- although the embarrassing belt removal and examination was new this time.

Paul Witt's picture

My guess: 66K total (early,

My guess: 66K total (early, absentee and election day)

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