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Published on KnoxViews (http://www.knoxviews.com)

Perpetual primary update

By R. Neal
Created May 29 2008 - 07:39

RCP: [1]

Puerto Rico (55 delegates): Clinton 50%, Obama 37%
Montana (16 delegates): Obama 52%, Clinton 35%
South Dakota (15 delegates): Obama 46%, Clinton 34%

Raw projection:
Clinton: +38 delegates
Obama: +35 delegates
Net: Clinton +3

Final result after Tuesday:
Obama: 2,014 (52.5%)
Clinton: 1,819 (47.5%, -195)

Needed to win (today): 2026

Obama can't win it, Hillary won't end it.

Remaining undeclared superdelegates: 198

The DNC Rules Committee will meet re. FL & MI on Saturday. The goalpost will likely move, to either 2118 or 2210, depending on the decision.

Assuming the most likely outcome (DNC seats half the delegates or gives each 1/2 vote):

Clinton: +56.5 (FL), +40 (MI)
Obama: +37 (FL), possibly +16.5 (MI "uncommitted")

Then the post-Tuesday projection would be:

Obama: 2,067.5
Clinton: 1,915.5 (-152)

Needed (2118):

Obama: 50.5
Clinton: 202.5

Conclusion: 51 superdelegates declaring for Obama can end it today. All of the remaining superdelegates cannot put Clinton over the top.

Hillary's last gasp comes down to 4.5 delegates.


Source URL:
http://www.knoxviews.com/node/8022