Clinton's Texas firewall not so protective
By Elrod
Created Feb 12 2008 - 10:41
By now it's quite apparent that Hillary is setting up Ohio and Texas as a firewall against Obama's momentum. The Giuliani analogy aside, take a look at how precarious this strategy really is. Texas has a combined primary-caucus system that doubly screws the Clinton campaign. First, she's proven herself completely unable to organize for caucuses. And 1/3 of all delegates are chosen at caucuses, which can only be attended by those who voted in the primary earlier in the day. Yes, you vote twice!
But then there's the delegate apportionment system for the primary component (2/3 of delegates). The statewide primary is utterly meaningless. All that matters is how you do in State Senate districts. But the delegate apportionment in each district is determined by how high Democratic turnout was in 2004. Thanks to Tom DeLay, a few heavily black and liberal districts will get a much greater say in delegate apportionment than the more scattered Latino majority districts in the Rio Grande Valley.
Here is a great analysis of the Texas race, district by district. Short answer: if Hillary thinks the demographic advantages of Texas will give her a big delegate victory, she is sorely mistaken.
Texas analysis [1]
Links:
[1] http://blog.texansforobama.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=751