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Down to the wire in Iowa
Submitted by metulj on Thu, 2008/01/03 - 3:24pm.
Here's my prognostication:
Dems in order:
Obama
Clinton
Edwards Richardson
The Field
GOP in order:
Romney
Huckabee
McCain
Giuliani
Thompson
The Field
I emphasize Richardson as I think he is going to show up as a lot of caucus goers second pick and that will put his candidacy at a crossroads. Do you continue after telling your caucused voters to throw their second round votes to Obama? Or do you cut bait and go for Veep under Obama or Secretary of State? Could voters go for an African-American/Hispanic ticket? On the issues, especially wedge issues like gun rights, Richardson is strong (his foreign policy expertise alone should put him as front runner if the media actually cared about stuff like that).
My emphasis on McCain, Giuliani and Thompson in the eminently more interesting and scarier GOP race goes this way. McCain comes in third and he is then in great position to pull into first with a big win in New Hampshire (where he as been strong before). Giuliani will stay in the race in fourth, hoping for the "crackdown/authoritarian"-type GOP voter elsewhere. Thompson will quit the race if he doesn't get third. He won't get third as Iowans seem to know a terrible candidate and an outright phony when they see one.
Between, first and second in either party caucus, it is probably too close to call. Romney will take Huckabee because of the organization he has. Huckabee will see a flood of money after Iowa. Obama will squeak by Clinton, who will go into the later primaries a little smarter, but had better not go negative. It isn't as inevitable as it seems, it seems.
Submitted by knoxrebel on Thu, 2008/01/03 - 5:12pm.
Don Daugherty
My predictions:
Dems: 1 Clinton 2 Edwards 3 Obama 4 Biden (the last in double digits) Richardson is falling fast and will not break into double digits.
Richardson and Dodd are gone. Clinton, Edwards, Obama, Biden move forward to NH, SC, & Nevada. Kucinich will stay in for a while no matter how well he does. Whoever wins Iowa will not win NH. It might be Obama, Clinton, Edwards in NH.
GOP: 1 Romney 2 Huckabee 3 Thompson 4 McCain (virtual tie between Thompson and McCain at around 15%) 5 Paul 6 Giuliani
All 6 stay in through SC. Thompson drops out after a third place finish in SC. McCain wins NH, Romney 2nd, Giuliani 3rd.
Submitted by knoxrebel on Thu, 2008/01/03 - 6:08pm.
Don Daugherty
Randy, you may be right, Paul has pulled a double digit poll average over the past 2 days. I was in Iowa last week trudging through the snow and below 0 temps staying on a farm in eastern Iowa and found that Biden has a lot of rural eastern Iowa support and is very popular among Catholics. He was pulling huge crowds. I think he knocks off Richardson for 4th and gets a ticket out. Although Richardson is done after a poor finish in Iowa, I now hear he may hang around until Nevada as he has emphasized being a Westerner and Nevada is the first Western state up.
Obama: 34%
Edwards: 31%
Clinton: 31%
Richardson: a buck & change
the rest effectively zero
____________________________
With the possible exception of things like box scores, race results, and stock market tabulations, there is no such thing as Objective Journalism. The phrase itself is a pompous contradiction in terms.
Submitted by Pam Strickland on Thu, 2008/01/03 - 10:16pm.
Hot Damn that's tight. Wonder what the likelihood is that it will stay that way. Also, if those are urban or rural numbers. Edwards has more support in the rural counties.
Pam Strickland
"We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be." ~Kurt Vonnegut
Submitted by Andy Axel on Thu, 2008/01/03 - 10:19pm.
9:20 ET:
SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 34.84%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 31.31%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 31.09%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 1.66%
SENATOR JOE BIDEN : 0.98%
UNCOMMITTED : 0.08%
SENATOR CHRIS DODD : 0.03%
PRECINCTS REPORTING: 1139 OF 1781
____________________________
With the possible exception of things like box scores, race results, and stock market tabulations, there is no such thing as Objective Journalism. The phrase itself is a pompous contradiction in terms.
Submitted by Up Goose Creek on Thu, 2008/01/03 - 11:11pm.
Aren't those numbers skewed because they only report votes for candidates who get 15% in a caucus? In other words, a portion of the numbers represent some voters' 2nd choice.
____________________________________
Less is the new More - Karrie Jacobs
Submitted by Terry Troll on Fri, 2008/01/04 - 8:58am.
Yes, while Richardson probably got 10-15% of the original vote, any precinct in which he did not have at least 15% recounted with his supporters going to other candidates. So, in order to be awarded 2% he had some precints in which he got more than 15% of the vote.
Don Daugherty
My predictions:
Dems: 1 Clinton 2 Edwards 3 Obama 4 Biden (the last in double digits) Richardson is falling fast and will not break into double digits.
Richardson and Dodd are gone. Clinton, Edwards, Obama, Biden move forward to NH, SC, & Nevada. Kucinich will stay in for a while no matter how well he does. Whoever wins Iowa will not win NH. It might be Obama, Clinton, Edwards in NH.
GOP: 1 Romney 2 Huckabee 3 Thompson 4 McCain (virtual tie between Thompson and McCain at around 15%) 5 Paul 6 Giuliani
All 6 stay in through SC. Thompson drops out after a third place finish in SC. McCain wins NH, Romney 2nd, Giuliani 3rd.
My predictions here:
Link...
I think there's a chance Ron Paul can place ahead of Thompson.
Don Daugherty
Randy, you may be right, Paul has pulled a double digit poll average over the past 2 days. I was in Iowa last week trudging through the snow and below 0 temps staying on a farm in eastern Iowa and found that Biden has a lot of rural eastern Iowa support and is very popular among Catholics. He was pulling huge crowds. I think he knocks off Richardson for 4th and gets a ticket out. Although Richardson is done after a poor finish in Iowa, I now hear he may hang around until Nevada as he has emphasized being a Westerner and Nevada is the first Western state up.
Biden has a lot of rural eastern Iowa support and is very popular among Catholics.
That's interesting and I did not know that. I might have ranked him higher.
Got some odds & ends updates on yesterdays Iowa thread.
Obama-3 county delegates
Edwards-2 county delegates
Clinton-1 county delegate
Live results: http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/
As of now:
Obama: 34%
Edwards: 31%
Clinton: 31%
Richardson: a buck & change
the rest effectively zero
____________________________
With the possible exception of things like box scores, race results, and stock market tabulations, there is no such thing as Objective Journalism. The phrase itself is a pompous contradiction in terms.
Hot Damn that's tight. Wonder what the likelihood is that it will stay that way. Also, if those are urban or rural numbers. Edwards has more support in the rural counties.
Pam Strickland
"We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be." ~Kurt Vonnegut
9:20 ET:
SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 34.84%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 31.31%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 31.09%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 1.66%
SENATOR JOE BIDEN : 0.98%
UNCOMMITTED : 0.08%
SENATOR CHRIS DODD : 0.03%
PRECINCTS REPORTING: 1139 OF 1781
____________________________
With the possible exception of things like box scores, race results, and stock market tabulations, there is no such thing as Objective Journalism. The phrase itself is a pompous contradiction in terms.
Aren't those numbers skewed because they only report votes for candidates who get 15% in a caucus? In other words, a portion of the numbers represent some voters' 2nd choice.
____________________________________
Less is the new More - Karrie Jacobs
Yes, while Richardson probably got 10-15% of the original vote, any precinct in which he did not have at least 15% recounted with his supporters going to other candidates. So, in order to be awarded 2% he had some precints in which he got more than 15% of the vote.
All of you prognosticators missed the Dems bad!!! Obama will get the nomination, ensuring that we will have another Republican President!!
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