Wed
Aug 22 2007
12:32 am
Hillary within 2 of Fred Thompson - in Alabama!
By: Elrod

According to a SUSA poll Hillary Clinton beats all three top GOP challengers in Virginia and Kentucky, and beats Romney in Alabama. She loses to Giuliani in Alabama by 6. But the real shocker is that the Southern, Alabama-born, good old boy Fred Thompson only beats her by 2 points.

(link...)

That she wins in Upper South states like KY and VA is noteworthy but not terribly surprising; Bill Clinton won KY twice, and Virginia is clearly trending blue with the massive growth of northern Virginia. But Alabama is as red as ever. In fact, one of Hillary Clinton's most infamous moments in the campaign season so far was her failed attempt at code switching at a black church in Selma - an event that drew ridicule throughout the South. Yet there she is, just 2 points below Fred Thompson.

If this poll is accurate then the backers of Fred Thompson have to be asking themselves if he's really the right guy. Bush won Alabama by 26 points in 2004. Any Republican should expect to win Alabama by 12 points at least; Bill Clinton came fairly close in 1996 with the help of Perot. But Hillary has none of the charisma of her husband. And Alabama is even more Republican now than in 1996. So how could she poll so well there? And more importantly, why does Fred Thompson do so poorly against her, vis-a-vis Giuliani?

I admit that this poll is a shocker. A recent poll from Arkansas showed her absolutely crushing each of the GOP nominees by double digits. As conservative as Arkansas is, I can see that happening because the state still leans Democratic (though conservative Democratic for sure) and people there still love the Clintons. Even Mike Huckabee praised the Clintons.

But Alabama is not Arkansas. Alabama has no history with her or Bill. Moreover, it's the state where Fred Thompson was born. What's going on here? Are fears of her negatives in the South overblown? Are her negatives played out? Can Hillary Clinton win multiple Southern states like her husband did? If KY and VA look so good for her, surely MO, OH and NC are in good shape too. And if it's Giuliani leading the ticket I'd say our great state of Tennessee is in play for Hillary Clinton too. Who'da thunk it?

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Brian A.'s picture

Are fears of her negatives

Submitted by Brian A. on Wed, 2007/08/22 - 3:22am.

Are fears of her negatives in the South overblown?

I don't have a crystal ball, but I doubt it. She's not Bill. I wouldn't put much stock in such polling for another few months.

Brian A.
I'd rather be cycling.

CBT's picture

I wouldn't put any stock in

Submitted by CBT on Wed, 2007/08/22 - 6:32am.

I wouldn't put any stock in polls like this. Note the source is registered voters (we know half those don't vote). It must have been a small sampling of these half-voters too with a MoE of 4.3. These are just talking points for Kos readers. Get back to me in about six months.

Bbeanster's picture

Fred won't be in it in six

Submitted by Bbeanster on Wed, 2007/08/22 - 7:56am.

Fred won't be in it in six months.

Socialist With A Gold Card's picture

Hilarious

Submitted by Socialist With ... on Wed, 2007/08/22 - 8:46am.

These are just talking points for Kos readers.

That's pretty hilarious, given the typical animosity toward Clinton's campaign at DailyKos.

--Socialist With A Gold Card

"I'm a socialist with a gold card. I firmly believe we need a revolution; I'm just concerned that I won't be able to get good moisturizer afterwards." -- Brett Butler

Elrod's picture

All well and good

Submitted by Elrod on Wed, 2007/08/22 - 8:33am.

Caveats about it being early and all, and the MOE always apply. But this poll does track movement from an earlier sampling to this one and clearly shows movement toward Hillary vis-a-vis all GOP candidates. I'm not saying she's going to win Alabama. I'm just saying that she's not as instantly radioactive among registered voters in the South as many commentators assume. Polls should be able to pick up on that.

bill young's picture

89%

Submitted by bill young on Wed, 2007/08/22 - 10:46am.

89% of registered voters voted in '04..& 58% of voting age populaton (est 60% in Knox County)

Polls show more folks are keeping up with this election.

Turn-Out could top those numbers in '08.

We could well vote around 200,000 in Knox County...already some are saying 150,000 in the presidential primary.

Its just a snapshot & just one poll...but man I like that snapshot.

Virgil Proudfoot's picture

This doesn't surprise me

Submitted by Virgil Proudfoot on Wed, 2007/08/22 - 11:16am.

Doesn't surprise me a bit. Hillary loves her that Iraq War almost as much as Fred does. Also, maybe she reminds the Alabamans of Lurlene Wallace, who ran for governor after her husband George was term-limited.

Brian A.'s picture

89% turnout?

Submitted by Brian A. on Wed, 2007/08/22 - 11:24am.

Where?

Brian A.
I'd rather be cycling.

bill young's picture

US

Submitted by bill young on Wed, 2007/08/22 - 11:40am.

US in '04 this from the census
google registered voters voting in '04

Andy Axel's picture

Caution... Caution...

Submitted by Andy Axel on Wed, 2007/08/22 - 5:29pm.

Remember that the Zogby poll had Kerry winning in Tennessee in 2004 by 4 points.

____________________________

I'm a guy in a Reagan mask -- and I'm running for President!

Elrod's picture

online

Submitted by Elrod on Wed, 2007/08/22 - 8:14pm.

That was a dodgy online poll that got just about every state wrong. SUSA is a robo-phone poll (like Rasmussen) and has a good track record.

Pam Strickland's picture

Alabama Fred

Submitted by Pam Strickland on Thu, 2007/08/23 - 11:31am.

Fred is Alabaman in name only. Florence, his birthplace, is just over the line from Lawrenceburg, his stated hometown that the LA Times just did a story on.

As for Hillary. Let's see. Women who've been downtrodden and finally have a chance to vote for a woman. I can see it. Plus, she's not so liberal, or even progressive as she prefers, to alienate the more conservative.

Yeah, it's odd. But it's probably a sign of how completely pissed off at the Republicans that Bama folks are.

Pam Strickland

"We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be." ~Kurt Vonnegut

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