Mon
Feb 25 2013
01:58 pm
By: R. Neal

Everybody calm down. This will not happen. If it does it will last about 24 hours. It's just more bad Kabuki theater from D.C.

bizgrrl's picture

Exactly. The sky is falling,

Exactly. The sky is falling, the sky is falling. It's the end of the world as we know it.

cafkia's picture

If they had wanted it to be

If they had wanted it to be successful(the threat) it should have been a phased threat with the first phase being the non-recoverable termination of all congressional office and expense fees. Next should have been the non-recoverable termination of congressional pay and benefits. Follow that with a total cessation of congressional contact with lobbyists, personal, financial or, electronic. Then move on to the broad strokes cuts across the board that we are now faced with.

Like the proverbial mule, first you have to get their attention.

Rachel's picture

I think it IS going to

I think it IS going to happen. Won't last long, tho, but there will be a hell of a battle over what replaces it.

It doesn't HAVE to happen. We have completely stupid people running our country at the moment.

Stick's picture

+1

+1

Mike Cohen's picture

Sequestration

OK, I get that nobody likes it, including me.

But we can't keep borrowing 42 cents of every dollar we spend. At best, it is unsustainable. At worst it is total insanity.

Something has to go. A lot of somethings have to go.

R. Neal's picture

Not arguing that. Jut the

Not arguing that. Jut the manner and timing. Unfortunately, we have a dysfunctional Congress that is unable (mostly unwilling) to do anything about anything.

Stick's picture

Print it + Spend it + Create Long-Term Value

Thank you, thank you, thank you.

Deflationary economic policies [such as budget cuts in a low demand environment] are just that... deflationary. See: UK, Spain, Ireland, etc.

Austerity is a-comin' and the result is entirely predictable. The zombie narrative lives!

Rachel's picture

I agree. At some point. But

I agree. At some point. But during a recession isn't it. Our most pressing problem is getting out of the recession and getting folks jobs and that needs more govt spending, not less. Once the economy is better, then it makes sense to attack the debt.(And at that point we might also consider - gasp - revenue increases as well as what "has to go.")

It would be nice if we hadn't fought that unnecessary war in Iraq. Then we'd be in a much smaller mess. But it's all the Democrats fault, you know. Big spenders and such.

Argh. Don't mind me today. I'm an old lady fed up with stupid (not you, Mike.)

P.S. Not saying that you're doing this, but I'm completely impatient with analogies between govt budgets/spending and family ones. A govt budget is NOT the same thing as a family budget.

cafkia's picture

Yes I am nitpicking for the

Yes I am nitpicking for the purpose of being argumentative but it is still true that Afghanistan did not attack us either. To me it is as obvious that the Afghan war was unnecessary as is the Iraq war. Between the facts that the attacks of IX/XI were completely preventable and the fact that the war accomplished the goals of the multi-national crew that planned and carried out the attacks, there was much more reason to NOT carry out the revenge as a traditional military effort.

Do not give the morons a pass on that war. It was as large a mistake as the Iraq war. (if you don't believe me, ask Alexander, Kipling, the Soviets, etc.)

redmondkr's picture

I wonder what sequestration

I wonder what sequestration will do for the Congressional bottled water allotment. I realize it's chicken feed, slightly less than $2000 a head per year for the House. Corker would probably suggest making it up by tweaking Grandma's Social Security COLA.

I would suggest tap water. It works for Grandma and me.

Rachel's picture

By the way, the entire

By the way, the entire discussion of the recession and the debt bypasses what is the real existential threat to us - global climate change.

cafkia's picture

Though I have neither seen

Though I have neither seen nor done the studies, I can't imagine that the tools and machinations of war are anything but an accelerant where climate change is concerned.

Mike Cohen's picture

Debt

Toby....I get that it is not the same. But if 42 cents of every dollar you spend is borrowed you are headed for a shipwreck. Heck, the 42 is a the borrowed amount, it doesn't factor in interest.

We can't keep going at that rate. I don't think anyone thinks we can.

And I understand the argument that now isn't a good time, but the reality is that it is never a good time to shut down programs, lay off workers and cut government services. Never.

reform4's picture

1. Look at graph. 2.

1. Look at graph.
2. Understand and agree that the Bush Tax cuts, which were a return of surpluses, are no longer relevant because those surpluses no longer exist. Agree that they have to go away.
3. Recognize that the wars are a major contributing factor. Recognize that with two wars winding down (and if we can keep McCain from getting us involved in Iran), that factor will go away.
4. Recognize that, as pointed about above, if we can get the economy moving, then we don't really have a problem anymore.

Now, with regards to #4, we can then argue with what is the best way to do that. That may involve some tax cuts that replace the eliminated Bush tax cuts, but we have 10 years of evidence that GIANT tax cuts don't make giant increases in economic activity. In fact, high earner tax cuts have led to more layoffs, offshoring of jobs, and other negative impacts.

IMHO, we need a tax policy that encourages creation of jobs here in the U.S. That includes bringing back some of the private sector jobs we eliminated, because government employees buy cars, go out to eat, etc. Hell, look at East Tennessee- the National Labs, UT, and TVA are two of the largest employers. Two of the above paid for the roof over my head when I was a kid.

But I digress- the graph above has to be acknowledged by anyone before participating in a "the debt is too damn high" discussions.

Mike Cohen's picture

Graph

Steve:

First off, TVA doesn't get a dime of federal money. Yes, they did in the past...but that hasn't been the case for a while.

Secondly...are we a beneficiary of government spending here? Absolutely. I get that.

Thirdly....do I care who is responsible? Not particularly. We don't have to agree on who caused a problem to realize the problem needs to be fixed.

I would love to think we could just keep on going like this forever, but we can't.

No blame game. Let's just find some solutions.

reform4's picture

True

I thought TVA still got $$ for river navigation and non-power ops, but true, the power side is self-sustaining (from us ratepayers, of course).

The point of the graph is not to blame for the past...well, partly it is. But those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it, and those who do can see some past is NOT prologue. If the tax cuts expire and STAY dead, other than what we deem important for economic stimulus, and we shut down our two wars and keep out of a third, then the future doesn't look as bleak.

I'm not saying the budget is balanced either, but the graph clearly shows that last 10 years, we've had a revenue problem primarily, not a spending problem. And our laissez-faire tax policy encouraging offshoring and keeping profits overseas has strangled job growth, which strangles GDP growth because, hey, people with jobs actually spend money (go figure), and tend to take less unemployment $.

Deficits are not new things. We ran them up in the 80's building a 300-ship Navy and Star Wars. We got ahold of them in the 90's by raising taxes, which all the 'experts' said would kill the economy in the 1990s. Hm. So when one of the same 'experts' tells me we have to make draconian cuts to bring the budget deficit to zero, I dig a little and find they have their own axe to grind- maybe it's privatizing Social Security, or it's privatizing Medicare, but after reading Shock Doctrine, my eyes are wide open to this kind of bull***t.

It's like running a business- if you look like you're sliding into the red, you have two choices- you can cut, cut, cut until the red is gone, or you can grow your top line while managing your expenses better. Mindless idiots do the former, good managers do the latter. The problem is, both Congress and the private sector are full of the former (mindless idiots) who can't take 10 minutes to analyze the problem, or who don't because they have another agenda.

We've been here before. Debt to GDP was higher after World War II (I think it was right at 100% of GDP). I seem to recall we did OK in the 50s, and we even managed to rebuild Japan and Germany while we were at it.

Then again, check out the tax rates back then. But you should be sitting down first.

Rachel's picture

I thought TVA still got $$

I thought TVA still got $$ for river navigation and non-power ops,

Nope, Craven Crowell voluntarily gave that up around '96. Which is why the water quality program, among other environmental initiatives, has been cut all to heck. The power folks have zero interest in any of that stuff beyond meeting minimum regulatory standards.

redmondkr's picture

Funny how the deficit didn't

Funny how the deficit didn't mean squat until 20 January, 2009.

Mike Cohen's picture

Deficit

in fairness, I don't think it was in January 2009, it was more about February when they $500-billion Recovery Act passed.

redmondkr's picture

The stimulus didn't seem to a

The stimulus didn't seem to be a problem for Mr. Ryan when he was lobbying to get his hands on some of it.

And, of course, we are all familiar with this:

Rachel's picture

I appreciate that Mike is

I appreciate that Mike is more interested in finding solutions that fixing blame. He'd survive about 5 minutes in Congress with that attitude.

I will just submit again, however, that a) solutions to the debt should wait until the economy is stronger, and b) such solutions must include both revenue raising and cost cutting measures.

And one of the places where cuts should be made is defense. We have enough military power to wipe out everyone else on earth a gazillion times over. Surely we could make do with an couple of orders of magnitude less.

Mike Cohen's picture

Rachel

Rachel:

I agree with you that the military could be smaller.

Not sure I agree on waiting. Every day we wait we go deeper into the hole. And cutting programs/services/employees will be painful whenever we do it.

But I understand your point. I'd like to think we could start sooner than later.

Mike Cohen's picture

Metulj

We just fundamentally disagree. You are fine with printing money and borrowing more and I am not.

From your perspective, you are absolutely right.

From my perspective, you are absolutely wrong.

Chocolate/vanilla. Tomaato/tomahto.

Mike Cohen's picture

Printing money

Yes, I am aware that is not borrowing. But I am not sure there is a huge functional difference.

I have a framed $500,000,000 bill hanging in my living room. I bought it, already framed, for about two bucks in Belgrade.

The printing money didn't exactly work out for Milosevic, although I admit he had other issues as well.

Stick's picture

Different context. With labor

Different context. With labor as beat down as it is there is little chance of an outbreak of hyper-inflation. Inflation is not a simple function of the money supply. There are also questions of velocity and whether labor can achieve gains in income to keep pace with inflationary pressure. Looking around America these days, I see little to fear in that department.

AnonymousOne's picture

Doesn't printing money cause

Doesn't printing money cause inflation? Just checking, 'cause I don't have a wheelbarrow. And prices are high enough without devaluing the dollar anymore, I'd think.

Rachel's picture

Mike, If you think we need to

Mike,

If you think we need to address the debt NOW, do you agree we should also raise some taxes (or at least close some loopholes)?

Or does all the solution have to come from cost-cutting?

I for one would be fine paying taxes at the pre-Bush tax cut level. In fact, I'd much rather do that than inflict pain on SS, Medicaid, and Medicare recepients. I can handle it; they can't (and shouldn't).

But then, I don't belong to the Tea Party.

AnonymousOne's picture

If I was in Congress, I'd

If I was in Congress, I'd give the president everything he wanted. 4 years from now, or 10, the DNC may be wishing he hadn't spent so much, but there's nothing really the GOP can do about it now, except walk into Obama's trap. And yes it's a lot of politics on both sides.

I don't think more taxes are a good idea right now.

The economy is too fragile. I mean, mess the retail sector up even more if you can find an industry to replace it, but I'm not sure you can.

I'd just let Obama keep borrowing. It will damage the economy some, but probably Hillary's chances even more, unless she runs like a conservative in 2016, as her husband did.

fischbobber's picture

Taxes

Actually, you would be wrong. The appropriate solution to our current state of affairs is to readjust our tax scale to match the budget. In other words, if the top 1% make 40% of the money, they pay 40% of the taxes. Top 5 % make 65% of the money, they pay 65% of the taxes. etc. You don't tax people, you tax the money. If the private sector acts responsibly, they get taxed responsibly. If someone attempts to bleed the system, the tax system should bleed them. It's a simple concept really, and one that guarantees the future of capitalism. Taxation is one of the only checks and balances on unbridled greed destroying a capitalistic system.

redmondkr's picture

Just let Obama keep

Up Goose Creek's picture

War on Savers

With the Fed buying up US Bonds and mortgage backed bonds with freshly minted money, interest rates are much lower than they would be otherwise. This hurts retirees and others who have low risk investments.

The best sloution I've heard is a tiny transaction tax on stock purchases. Let the churners help pay off the deficit.

Mike Cohen's picture

Rachel

Yes, Rachel...I believe the solution will involve both cutting costs and additional revenue such as closing loopholes.

I think getting control of spending is the first priority, but the fix will involve everything.

Up Goose Creek's picture

Oh Noes....!

This sequestration will cut the ATC night shift at TYS where the controllers are so bored they fall asleep on the job.

It will release illegal immigrants from jail ($164/day) whose only crime is being here illegally.

I'm so scared!

Mike Cohen's picture

Spending

Could you guys cite someone in a position of influence, ideally the Obama administration, who has said publicly that we don't need to reign in spending right away and printing lots more money will work just fine?

Mike Cohen's picture

Thanks

Not spinning....asking. I will Google these folks and the topic.

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