Mon
Nov 5 2012
09:40 pm

Post your EV total along with with swing state calls you'd like to make. Closest to the pin wins a pair of tickets to Flying Anvil Theatre's spring production, "The Great American Trailer Park Musical."

My call: 280-258, Obama picks up OH, CO, NY, NV, NM, IA, NH. Romney gets FL, VA, NC WI. Bonus call- Ohio doesn't get called for 3-4 days.

52
like
R. Neal's picture

303 Obama.

303 Obama.

Brian A.'s picture

Yes. Romney picks off FL,

Yes. Romney picks off FL, NC, IN, (and 1 in NE?) from Obama '08.

What about the Senate and House?

Is there a website with an interactive map that you can save and share?

Rachel's picture

What about the Senate and

What about the Senate and House?

I made myself a spreadsheet for the Senate because I couldn't find anything I liked online.

I'll update results here as I get them.

The House is just too complicated. And no way are the Dems going to take it back.

Brian A.'s picture

I've decided to go: Senate:

I've decided to go:

Senate: D/I 53 R 47
House: R 239 D 196

Rachel's picture

That's my guess too on the

That's my guess too on the Senate. The House I haven't messed with.

metulj's picture

302 Obama.

302 Obama.

Lobster's picture

Obama 290

Obama 290

jmcnair's picture

O - 284

Obama gets Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin. (Romney: VA, FL, IA)

metulj's picture

Obama gets Va again. That

Obama gets Va again. That bird has flown for the GOP.

KO's picture

314 - Obama 224 - Romnesia

314 - Obama
224 - Romnesia

fischbobber's picture

I'll go high

324 Obama

214 Romney

Rachel's picture

Obama 299, Romney 239.O gets

Slightly pessimistic, but estimating is one thing I tend to be conservative about. :)

Obama 299, Romney 239.

O gets Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, VA
R gets Florida, New Hampshire, NC

Bonus pick: we will know the winner by noon 11/7.

Factchecker's picture

I'll pick O 315, just cause

I'll pick O 315, just cause that's what Silver has now. R 223. This is cheap, I know, but I haven't given much thought before.

I'm with you fellers on the states.

Factchecker's picture

If a big state is wrong,

If a big state is wrong, others might be too. But I'd guess Nate Silver is right there too, though Florida might go Romney. If it and VA go to R, I think O would still have 273.

Silver has the rest of them as in the bag, with CO as the next nearest iffy state.

(Noticed he just converged the day-of cast with the now-cast. 92.2%! Not too bad.)

Factchecker's picture

Somebody should take 315 less

Somebody should take 315 less Florida = 286.

EricLykins's picture

For the sake of gambling,

For the sake of gambling, I'll predict the Bizarro Scenario or the future we may possibly deserve.

Enough people stay home because Nate Silver has it in the bag resulting in an electoral tie. The House of Reps picks the President and the Senate picks the VP. The ensuing chemistry is just weird enough to work for America and the Romney/Biden ticket goes on to a landslide victory in 2016, coincidentally the same year that Steve Spurrier coaches the University of Tennessee football team to its first no-win season.

Greg Mackay's picture

O gets 303

He wins VA.

Stick Thrower's picture

331

I'm optimistic:
Obama: 331
The other guy: 207
(Obama wins with the same map as 2008 minus Indiana and N.C.)

Shannon S's picture

315 Romney

Romney 315

Obama 223

JCB's picture

Romney wins Electoral College

Romney 272, 273, 274, or 276. 273 would be best because it would be done without Ohio. If Romney wins Ohio, it could be a 300 plus win for Romney. Biggest variables are the MOF, Margin of Fraud, the weather, and how voters react to the early exit polls. A Romney win requires getting over the MOF. Ohio won't be settled for weeks.

redmondkr's picture

MOF when his family owns

MOF when his family owns Ohio's voting machines?

Somebody's picture

Nope.

The Romney-Ohio voting machine thing as been pretty much debunked, just as the Republican claims of in-person voter fraud have been shown to be bogus.

Don Daugherty's picture

275-263 Obama

Obama -275

Romney - 263

PA, CO, MI, Ohio - Obama

Florida, VA, NV, NC - Romney

Rachel's picture

I see Greg Mackay and R. Neal

I see Greg Mackay and R. Neal both have 303, which is 4 more than my 299, which means New Hampshire. I feel I have been a tad pessimistic but I'll stick with my # just for the heck of it.

Pam Strickland's picture

Obama 303 -- He gets VA, OH,

Obama 303 -- He gets VA, OH, MI, IA, CO, WI, NV, PA, NH,

Romney 220 -- He gets FL, NC--maybe

metulj's picture

You are missing 5.

You are missing 5.

Pam Strickland's picture

I've got a couple of states

I've got a couple of states tied.

Factchecker's picture

or 15. ;>)

or 15. ;>)

Factchecker's picture

Thanks for the MOF laugh. The

Thanks for the MOF laugh. The GOP is sure trying and having some success suppressing votes, though. NPR reported voters without ID have been turned away in Penn., contrary to the judge's order. That's reverse-fraud fraud.

fischbobber's picture

Stick Thrower

So what's the deal here? Did the guy beat me? Am I the only compulsive gambler on this site? :-)?

Rachel's picture

He'll beat you if Obama holds

He'll beat you if Obama holds Florida.

fischbobber's picture

In that case

I hope I lose.

(I don't say that very often.)

Stick Thrower's picture

"The guy?"

I'm going to win. Thank you, Florida's sane voters. (But I live in Kansas now, so there is that unfortunate caveat.)

fischbobber's picture

Sorry

No offense intended. It was a long night full of sweet victories and bitter defeats and craft beer on a Tuesday. I will work on my eloquence.

Stick Thrower's picture

Looks like I'll win...

I shouldn't have underestimated Maine's second district which I thought would give Romney one extra electoral vote.

Fisch... since I'm no longer an East Tennessean, you're more than welcome to the flying anvil theatre prize, but (since you mentioned craft beer) do me a favor and go to the downtown brewery and have an IPA for me. If they still have the mugs, ask for 263. If they can't find it, go with 434, but get the downtown nut brown.

Cheers!

fischbobber's picture

Thanks!

I love Jayne Morgan. Years ago she teamed up with a fellow named Bob Deck for the Bob and Jayne show which I caught at the BiJou restaurant and at Naples. It was a happening show from which I quote the "Y'alls mall in Halls" line only slightly less frequently than I say, "If you've ever had a loved one et by pigs, you think about these kinds of things."

In my opinion, these are the two greatest snippets in Knoxville history.

(edit) I'm going to write those numbers down and go downtown on my bicycle to have that beer.

reform4's picture

Once we gt the dates finalized...

.. I'll get you the tickets/info. Congrats!!

Factchecker's picture

Nate Silver was not only

Nate Silver was not only proved right, his two highest probability distribution spurs nail the actual results with and without Fla.

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