Tue
Sep 11 2012
01:43 pm

Nate Silver is killing it again this election cycle.

In the CNN survey, Mr. Obama moved into a six-point lead among likely voters (and an eight-point lead when the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson was included in the poll) — up from a tie previously. But he made fewer gains in the survey among the broader universe of registered voters, with whom his lead expanded to eight points from seven.

The interesting part, in light of the annual "Ralph Nader killed 1 million Iraqis/America got what it deserved" argument taking place elsewhere on KV, is that the inclusion of Gary Johnson for the Libertarians pushes it to 8 points.

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Rachel's picture

I heart Nate Silver.

I heart Nate Silver.

metulj's picture

The interesting thing about

The interesting thing about Silver, and I kind of look forward to it in a way, is that eventually his models will show a GOP or non-Democrat in Obama's position. Will liberals start screaming "HE'S FULL OF SHIT!" I won't.

Rachel's picture

Will liberals start screaming

Will liberals start screaming "HE'S FULL OF SHIT!" I won't.

Me either. I admire his analyses. If they take him in a direction I don't like, that's just the way it is.

Factchecker's picture

No, but I sort of do say that

No, but I sort of do say that now about Zogby, whose poll was the only one favoring John Kerry in '04, IIRC. They blew all credibility and I foolishly hoped they knew something the others didn't. Nate Silver is accurate and explains his methodology.

Aren't a lot of pols saying the demographic future is running out for Republicans, though? And:

As George Will put it recently: "If the Republican Party cannot win in this environment, it has to get out of politics and find another business."

They've painted themselves in a corner and thrown away the key.

Andy Axel's picture

Bumpity bump... People who

Factchecker's picture

Like many, I'm watching the

Like many, I'm watching the tail of Silver's red and blue curves very carefully and hoping he's got it right! I don't see anybody else doing sophisticated math analysis on this stuff, though, let alone someone who's showing different results. If we instead favored the knee-jerk gut method of polling analysis, why look beyond Stephen Colbert?

EricLykins's picture

"But seeing the future has a

"But seeing the future has a dark side. I see my fate. Statisticians call it the Lohan curve."

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