Fri
Jan 19 2018
03:59 pm
My disappointing predictions for 2018 elections and beyond
By: R. Neal

Democrats hoping for a wave may be disappointed. I predict Republicans maintain or even strengthen control of the U.S. House and Senate.

The Trump voters and even Republican skeptics are happy that their 401Ks are a little fatter, they will get a few more bucks in their paychecks, Obamacare has been "repealed," and discrimination against urban, minority and ethnic people has been re-institutionalized. They are winning the propaganda wars, and Trump is the unlikely hero because of all he has "accomplished."

Our next governor will be a Republican, and could be a woman unless Randy Boyd gets busy. Democrats have fielded a couple of credible candidates, but they aren't well known outside Nashville or rural West Tennessee. It's also within the realm of possibility that they get beat out in the primary by somebody named Johnny Appleseed or Ace Bandage.

The Senate election should be closer, unless Democrats sit it out because Phil Bredesen is not Bernie Sanders or he loses the primary to Phat Albert. Bottom line, Republican in a close win and likely a woman.

Our next Congressman from the 2nd District will be a Republican, likely Burchett. He will carry Knox County, but needs to get out in the surrounding countryside where they don't know him and bale some hay or milk some cows or something. Matlock seems to be campaigning mostly outside Knox, so his strategy may be to win everywhere else and hope it's enough. Democrats have a couple of credible candidates who seem nice, but they don't have the political background and experience to compete with the East TN GOP juggernaut and Brian Hornback.

Johnson v. Smith round three will be a good matchup in State House District 13. Unfortunately for Democrats, incumbency and retrograde politics carry a lot of weight.

Over in Blount County we will have an assortment of usual suspects and yahoos with no adult supervision since Doug Overbey was appointed US Attorney for East Tennessee.

Beyond, Trump wins again because by 2020 the greatest leader in the history of the world myth will have grown to Biblical proportions, the Energy Dept. and EPA will report to Exxon Mobile, everybody at CNN and MSNBC will be in jail, Fox and Friends will occupy the Supreme Court, and the Grammys will be canceled.

Hope I'm wrong about all of this.

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bizgrrl's picture

I think you have the

Submitted by bizgrrl on Fri, 2018/01/19 - 4:09pm.

I think you have the Wintertime blues. Having said that, your points sound plausible.

Rachel's picture

You're too pessimistic, IMO.

Submitted by Rachel on Fri, 2018/01/19 - 4:37pm.

You're too pessimistic, IMO. Dems will take the House. The Senate #s won't change much. Neither party will have close to 60 votes.
Agree Burchett will win. And that there'll be a Republican governor.
I think the Senate race is a toss-up. So is Smith/Johnson.

BrianHornback's picture

I am interested

Submitted by BrianHornback (not verified) on Fri, 2018/01/19 - 4:46pm.

in all races, not just TN Second Congressional.

Will Callaway's picture

Renee Hoyos for Congress

Submitted by Will Callaway (not verified) on Fri, 2018/01/19 - 6:20pm.

Randy, join us next Tuesday. We'll add some sunshine to your dark winter.

Hoyos for Congress
Campaign Kick-off
January 23rd, 2018
5:30 to 7:00 p.m
Southern Railway Depot
306 W Depot Ave., Knoxville, TN

(Anonymous)'s picture

Please show me the number of

Submitted by (Anonymous) (not verified) on Fri, 2018/01/19 - 10:22pm.

Please show me the number of folks you know that voted for Trump and have switched. The media keeps telling you they exist, of course. Evidence seems to suggest otherwise. Most folks who voted for Trump are having the time of their lives. Like watching Nascar.

Bredesen will lose. You guys let Obama spend 8 years drumming home to Tennessee voters that the Democrats were taking a hard left turn. Now, you're letting your reps in Washington shut the government down to protect illegal immigrants.

And is Johnson running AGAIN ??? That's pretty amusing. How many times has she lost that district ? Jesus. Get a clue, lady.

Somebody's picture

Please show me the number of

Submitted by Somebody on Sat, 2018/01/20 - 10:48pm.
(in reply to (Anonymous))

Please show me the number of folks you know that voted for Trump and have switched.

I have talked to actual Trump voters who now regret that decision, and see him for mentally unstable person that he is. Some thought he’d be better and are disappointed. Others voted against Clinton, not for Trump. A combination of motivated Democratic voters and unenthusiastic Republicans does not bode well for the Republicans in this fall’s elections. Just ask Roy Moore.

Trump’s 2016 win does not mean he was a strong candidate, or that he actually has any mandate, or that he has coattails that will help Republicans this year or in 2020. Trump lost the popular vote. He has maintained record low approval ratings while in office. He has been unable to influence any of the special elections. Republicans are a majority in the House only because of Gerrymandering, which may get reeled in by the Supreme Court soon. Sure, the Democrats could still manage to screw things up, but the idea that there is any power in the numbers behind Trump or the GOP is just an illusion.

Mary Wilson's picture

Randy's 2018 predictions....

Submitted by Mary Wilson (not verified) on Tue, 2018/01/23 - 3:02pm.

Well, Randy, it seems your predictions are based on PAST elections. BUT I know some details that may change your mind on at least some picks you made.
1) The numbers of NEW voters across Tennessee are WAY UP...just like our victories here in our City Council races, the results proved that voters were sick of old white men (GOP) who needed to be replaced...and I am hoping the County Commission will gain new members...women, and people of color as well!
2) The numbers of KCDP members have grown and become much more diverse..into many more progressive groups...the Indivisibles, MoMs Demand Action, Swing Left, Socialist Democrats...and more... as well as the leaders of the two local Women's Marches HERE.
3) Those wonderful new citizens who now live in Tennessee (and are REGISTERED TO VOTE), who came here from countries that tRUMP HATES will vote against GOP members who support him.
So, I have hope, with all the GOP Pols under tRUMP, hurting our people, destruction of TennCare and the ACA, causing 9 Rural hospitals to close and those jobs lost, support of cutting SNAP, NO demand of renewing CHIP, and so much more...that we will gain new, super competent candidates devoted to our people, who will WIN over The GOP.

(Anonymous)'s picture

About right

Submitted by (Anonymous) (not verified) on Wed, 2018/01/24 - 11:50am.

Randy's predictions are not far off. I don' think anybody in Congress is safe. They have all been doing a lousy job, Dems and Repubs. Any predictions based on the idea that those who voted for Trump in 2016 are not going to vote for him again are just wishfull thinking.

Mike Knapp's picture

By winning toss ups Dems win House by one

Submitted by Mike Knapp on Sat, 2018/02/10 - 1:07pm.

Philip Bump in the WaPo - Democrats can win the house just by winning the toss ups

There are a total of 21 seats in which the 2016 margin was less than 2.5 points for either Clinton or Trump. Of those, nine were won by Clinton and 12 by Trump. Seven of the nine won by Clinton are held by Republicans, and six of the 12 won by Trump are held by Democrats. The Democrats don’t even need to win all of those seats to take control of the House, however narrowly.

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