Baby,I hate to sing a "song sung blue" for our Party.
And I believe it aint over till it's over is true.
But folks,the fat ladies warming up in the bullpen.
In the fall elections,the Republicans need 39 seats in the US House;10 in the US Senate to take over the majority.
In the House we are struggling mightly to hold on.
However,headlines like this aren't helping matters:
Republicans hold unprecedented,record,lead in the
generic D/R House poll;GOP will take House.
In the Senate we are taking on water.
But unless it's a GOP tidal wave.
I think we can hold on.
Because the numbers aren't burying us(except in Pa.)in the senate's seven deadly sins Democratic seats.Down by 2 in Ca.,Ill. tie,Wash. down by 3,Pa. down by 10,Colo.down by 4,Wis. down by 1,Nev. tie.
The Republicans must sweep these races in order to
win a majority in the Senate.
And some political spinners say,if O'Donnell wins the Del.Republican primary.the Democrats may win Biden's old seat.
The thing about politics..you can be down in November & back
up by spring.
Like ole Yogi said:
It ain't over till it's over.
The summer swan song of the Democrats could turn
with the fall leaves.
If we hold both the Senate & the House,no matter the majority..Democrats win..big!
So it ain't over till the fat lady sings.
I've heard her warming up..but she's not sung a note yet!
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I've said it before and I'll say it again...
the health care bill should have waited/been postponed until Obama's second term.
Without it to motivate the repubs Obama would be in a much better position.
Sure, a lot of this talk about the deficit from repubs is hypocracy...Bush kept the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan off the budget...and wasted billions of our tax dollars and repubs didn't bat an eyelash then but oppose every spending bill now including the tax breaks for small business bill.
So Obama is in trouble and dems are in trouble.....
I almost...almost want the repubs to win...because I know they will do their worst then...maybe get us into a war with North Korea or Iran ..
Sad it will take something like that to make the American people realize they've been fooled by the repubs yet again.
Repubs can run the country into the ground...and yet are coated with teflon because nothing seems to stick to them while dems can't even have more than 2 years to undo the damage the repubs did.
It's a shame and it's quite frankly stupid.
It makes me sick.
Oh well. Maybe the American people deserve what they get from the repubs the next time around.
BUT, BUT ...
1. The longer he waited, the more FAUX News would spout lies.
(Republican 24/7 Info-mercial run by CEO Roger Ailes - Google him some time; esp. with 1988 & Lee Atwater)
2. When will the White House begin to answer the GOP/ FOX / Koch Bros. campaign of lies & disinformation? - on health-care, Obama etc etc.? I feel abandoned by the guy I worked to elect.
Perhaps Joe Biden could be the admin point-man on a truth-squad. Obama's detached cool ain't getting it.
3. People don't vote for Cong in a National poll -- they vote in 435 local races and 90% of the time they re-elect their incumbent -- (thinking: "The rest of those pols are bums, but our guy is a real straight shooter.")
4. The DEMS need to repeal the Filibuster in January 2011-- It's unconstitutional & anti-deomcratic. Senators need to get over their Club privileges and start working for us!
Hey, B., I'm a fat lady and I ain't singin' yet because...
First of all, these surveys and polls are written outright or influenced by the GOP, and the evil TEA Party backers like the Koch Brothers and
Second, all these yaa-hoo Palin promoted candidates keep on insulting every single group of voters that have the MOST to lose! That goofy Angle person in Nevada...wants to destroy and end Social Security and Medicare. Rand Paul is trying to fool KY voters, and he wants to cancel the 14th Amendment and go back to the days of discrimination and NO civil rights... (by the way, a fru-fru place in West west Knox refused to serve a young African American female customer THIS YEAR.) So the more these Glenn Beck losers keep insulting people of color, members of ANY religion, jobless, folks....we have a chance. All we have to do is keep on standing up and speaking out.
DO ALL YOU CAN TO SUPPORT OUR DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES. DO NOT GET DUPED INTO VOTING FOR OTHER PARTY CANDIDATES...EVER.
I sure ain't singing yet.
Just a real tough year.
The House majority is in deep trouble.The biggest gap in The Gallop generic House poll,ever(GOP +10 points),is just not good news for our side.
The GOP wave could take out Lincoln Davis.Don't see Roy Herron winning.And,if it's a tital wave,could get Jim Cooper.
In the Senate..I think we will hold on by the skin of our teeth.But a GOP tital wave could wash that away.
Yes,the Democrat could upset the Republican in Ky.,Democrat down by 9.OTH,the Republican could upset the Democrat in Conn,Republican down by 7.
If Crist wins in Fla & that's a big if.
Crist could caucus with the Democrats.
Or Not..
He floats caucusing with the Democrats..then sinks it..then floats it...
2012
The President did the right thing in pushing the health care bill.Almost blew it by ignoring the Mass senate race but dug deep & made history.
The health care bill is good for the country.
The war is about to be a decade long.
Folks want it over.
But unlike the Vietnam War & the Iraq War,where we discovered the rational for both wars were mistaken,the Dominio Theory in Vietnam & WMD in Iraq.
We're not sure the rational for this war is
wrong.Terrorist have cells there.
At least on the Pakistan border.
There are many miles to go down this war's road.
Gotta be awful careful in that part of the globe.
If one isn't careful;it can get real bad..real quick.
Unemployment continues to be high.
Regardless of how it was;voters voted for it to get better.
It hasn't.At least in the voter's eyes.
The economy & the war are what's driving the
Republican mid term wave.
But the President's done a outstanding job of stopping an economic meltdown.
And the President's got us going in the right direction in
the Iraq War.
Plus the President passed a historic health care law.
The President's folks have been thinking about re election since Brown suprised them in the Mass Senate race.
Sure it could be tough year for the Democratic Party.
If so,election night spinners will have a big time about ole one term Obama.
But Reagan & Clinton won after taking big mid term losses.
And the bar ain't to high for us Democrats..if
we win slim majorities in the House & Senate..we win
..big time!
How will the ole spinners spin that around Obama's
chances in 2012?
You sir, are the Richard
You sir,
are the Richard Brautigan
(or is it Robert since it has been years since "Trout Fishing in America" graced the water closet)
of the local political commentary scene.
Except I was never much one for poetry,
with the exception
of the occasional dose
Of Charles Bukowski.
Democrat picks up points in Ky.!
Are the leaves starting to turn in the Democrat's favor
up in Ky.?
Latest poll..Democrat picks up 4 points;Republican lead has dropped from +9 to +5.
This would be because Rand
This would be because Rand Paul is insane, not because he is Republican.
For some reason, it's human
For some reason, it's human nature to see a real or perceived trend, and to assume that trend will continue in the same direction for eternity. Karl Rove talked about a permanent Republican majority. Back in the days when Tip O'Neil was Speaker of the House, there was much talk about the incumbency effect and what amounted to a permanent Democratic majority. Not too long ago, everybody was plowing money into dot-com businesses and the endless "new economy," despite those businesses' lack of plans to actually ever make money. After that bubble burst, everyone kept plowing money into real estate, gambling on "sure bet" introductory mortgage rates that could simply be refinanced based on real estate values that would endlessly go up. After that fell apart, everyone saw an economy that would never come back, or at least not any time soon. Since Obama was elected in the middle of the downhill slide, now everyone thinks his fortunes are attached to the same Downward Trend that Will Never End.
It's two months until election day. That's an eternity in politics. There are things that can happen between now and then that we can't even imagine that could change everything, and in any direction. The term "October Surprise" exists for a reason.
Alabama
Alabama
Very interesting, but that's
Very interesting, but that's local politics in a red state, and gubernatorial elections don't generally have much impact on national politics, with the exception of fairly rare appointments to the US Senate.
Bill thinks that Estes
Bill thinks that Estes Kefauver's high colonic on June 12th, 1947 still has ramifications for the Democratic Party especially in light of Obama's obvious left-handedness and penchant for walking and talking at the same time. GO VOLS!
The Big Flip
Delaware Republican primary voters gave the Democrats an early Christmas present.
They nominated O'Donnell for the US Senate!
O'Donnell defeated a candidate who was a slam dunk to
flip that Deleware Senate seat from D 2 R.
However,the day after,the polls have flipped & now
the Democrat is the favorite.
Labor Day the Democrats chances were slim to none in
this mid term election.And Slim had left town.
But folks,last night,ole Slim slipped into town on the
old Blue Hen Special.
Democrats chances of holding the Senate got a whole lot better with O'Donnell's nomination.
Maybe they'll actually get
Maybe they'll actually get around to using that majority someday. There's always "hope."
Republicans in Delaware
Republicans in Delaware pulled a stunt similar to the South Carolina McCain bashing of 2000 with robo-calls about O'Donnell's finances. Now they're stuck with her, of course they're singing her praises.
The Devil You Know vs the Devil You Fear
Not only is there movement to the Democratic US Senate candidate in Deleware.
A race GOP pundits were counting on to win a majority.
There is also movement to the Democratic US Senate candidate in the Washington Senate race.
Democratic candidate is up by 9 points.
As I've commented,thought the Democrats would hold the Senate
by the skin of our teeth...unless it was a GOP tidal wave.
Recent polls in Washington & Delaware have added a little skin to our teeth.
And lead me to believe we will hold the Senate majority.
However,I'm still not sure about the Democrats holding
the majority in the US House.
GOP need a 39 seat flip from D 2 R to win a majority.
GOP pundits,at least the ones I listen to,are now talking 40 to 45 seat D 2 R flip.
Right now I believe one must still favor the GOP flipping
the 39 seats they need.
But less so than I felt Labor Day.
Because the electorate has become volatile.
Voters believe the country's on the wrong track.
Voters voted Democratic,in '06 & '08.Believed the
Republicans had got the country in a ditch.
But in the voter's mind..we didn't get us out of
the ditch & they were ready to dump us.
Voters still don't like us all that much.
And the voters haven't bought the "It's still Bush's
fault" narrative we are selling.
HOWEVER,the extreme positions that all the GOP nominees
had to take,this spring & summer,to win the GOP primaries has fueled the fall volatility of the electorate.
The O'Donnell win was the final piece in creating a backlash against the GOP wave.
As Bill Clinton says..elections are about the future.
Will the battle to control the US House be a battle between
the devil you know vs the devil you don't?
The voter doesn't like where the Democrats are taking us.
But they fear where the Republicans are headed?
It's starting to look like TN
It's starting to look like TN will lose two D seats in the U.S. House, losing three is possible, and four is not inconceivable. If Republican turnout for the governor's election is huge, Ds are in big trouble across the board.
Those losses might have been
Those losses might have been holds if Gordon and Tanner weren't surren... I mean, retiring.
The Bottom Line
If the GOP only flips 38 House seats & 9 Senate seats from D 2 R..Democrats win.
Lincoln's in a dog fight in a down & dirty race.
And a stong Republican wave vote could knock him out.
Jim should win but a Republican tidal wave vote could
knock him out as well.
'94
In '92,the Soviet Union was gone & jobs were out there.
And we had shown our might vs Iraq.
We we weren't all that worried.
So the voters got into a let's shake things up a bit
mood.
Insurgent campaigns had their 15 minutes of fame:
Tsongas & Brown for the Democrats.
Buchanan for the Republicans.
Perot,in the general,got 19% of the vote.
And we elected our first boomer president,Bill Clinton.
The let's shake things up a bit mood was still there
in '94.
In the House,the Republicans went after the Democratic
moss back 40 year majority.
It bled over to the Senate races & bam..a Republican
Revolution!
This year is different.
The country's in a hole.
10% are out of work.Many many Americans have gone
from good jobs to those that suck.
And we are in a war that's gone on for nearly a decade.
Plus,the guy that blew us up,on 9-11..is still out there.
Lurking.
Like I've commented before..folks voted Democratic,
in '08,not to shake things up but to get us out
of this hole.
I think the President has followed rule 1:
If you are in a hole..stop digging.
But if you be in a hole & can't see daylight.
Stop digging don't seam to be helping.
Some folks haven't seen daylight for a couple of years.
Voter's are uneasy,not about the next decade,but about
next week.And ready to boot everybody out.
But the Republicans far right ways have scared the
hell out of voters.
Looks like Davis might get a
Looks like Davis might get a reprieve. And it isn't even October yet.
http://politics.nashvillepost.com/2010/09/16/oh-so-thats-what-this-serie...
"Like Sands Thru an Hourglass"
"So are the Days of Our Lives."
My Mamaw luved that story.
That's what Mamaw called the soaps;
Her stories.
Politics is like one of those stories.
My Mamaw watched every afternoon.
Always a crisis & if one doesn't watch everyday;
it's hard to figure out what the hell's going on.
OTH,one can watch, politics or the daytime stories,
every now & agin, & get the jist of it.
Paradox.
GOP needs 2 flip 10 seats D 2 R, in the U.S.Senate races,
for a majority.
GONE..done baked in the cake.
Ark.,Ind. flipped D 2 R.
10-2=8
Therefore,GOP needs to flip 8 seats D 2 R.
Latest polls I've seen,could be within margin of error but
if D is behind = L for losing..if ahead = W for winning.
Labor Day Seats I wuz watching:
Cal-W
Wash-W
Nev-L
Colo-L
Wis-L
Pa-L
Ill-L
Pa not baked in the cake ,yet, 4 R's but almost.
The Fall Additions:
West Va-L
Del-W
Del not baked in the cake ,yet, 4 D's but almost.
Somehow race in NY getting closer but D's still OK.
And I'm still not sure about D in Conn..
The D nominee that served in Vietnam..NOT.
The GOP looking to flip,D 2 R,10 seats to win
majority.Got 2 in Ark & Ind.
Need 2 flip 8 more.
Win in Cal,Wash,Nev,Colo,Wis,Pa,Ill & West Va.
Or lose one of those & flip Conn.
If the GOP can tidal wave this thing they got a
shot @ it.I wouldn't bet on it but got a shot.
Sands thru the hourglass...It's fall!!
And these are the fall elections.
Today;US Senate
GOP needs + 10 D 2 R flip.
Today's snapshot:
GOP's + 5; D 2 R flip; Ark., Colo., Ind., Pa., Wis.
Toss-ups, all D seats, Ill., Nev., Wash., West Va.
Today, Conn. (D seat), is no longer a toss-up.
A week long R surge put Conn., in play.
But D has surged in the last 24 hours.
Today a D hold.
We're on a see-saw, but, TODAY, even if GOP flips all of the 4 toss-ups, D 2 R, the GOP can't get the majority.
the GOP can't get the
the GOP can't get the majority.
Apparently, the Party of NO doesn't need a majority to block progress.
Majority is better than Minority
It does matter who is the majority in committee, because, that's how u control what gets to the floor & u've got to have a majority on the floor to control a majority in the committees.
But cloture is just not happening.Which pretty much grinds
the Senate to a halt.
But cloture is just not
Gee, why could that be?
Hints: Landrieu. Dorgan. Nelson. Bayh. Conrad. Lincoln.
Help me out Andy
I'm sure u r right but I just don't recall the exact bills those Senators u named voted against cloture.
The cloture train left Washington when Brown won Mass.
And I don't think it's coming back in the next 2 years.
As far as Bayh & Lincoln.
Bayh chose not to seek re election & that seat is going Republican in a big way.
Lincoln is going to get stomped by a Republican in her re election bid.
The cloture train never was,
The cloture train never was, Bill. Not with Lieberman and Specter in the "caucus," along with the aforementioned faithless, feckless Dems.
If you ever had faith in the supermajority, I don't quite know what to say to you.
Andy ????
Andy, ur the one who named Senators & I figured u knew the
floor votes they made against cloture.
I admit I don't know & I thought u would educate us on the
subject.
Now,whether one had "faith in the super majority" is an opinion.
I'm guessing u didn't.Fine.
I'm not sure if I had "faith in the super majority".
I did like having 60 votes in the Democratic caucus.
60 being the votes needed to envoke cloture.
But it doesn't answer the question on what bills that the "faithless, feckless" Democratic Senators voted against
cloture.
Could well be these Senators voted against cloture.
I don't know.
BTW,Spector's gone & the Pa. Democratic senate seat Spector held is looking more & more like a D 2 R flip.
I can give more if you need them...
Mary Landrieu
Evan Bayh
Byron Dorgan
Ben Nelson
Blanche Lincoln
Kent Conrad
Thanks
I didn't know now I do.
There is no joy in this for
There is no joy in this for me. Only anger and resignation.
Even at full strength, it only took one crossover to make any show of party unity worth nothing. And since "bipartisanship" has such political currency (and as the functioning definition of bipartisanship is "giving the Republicans political cover"), the coalition seldom has a chance to hold.