Sun
Oct 11 2020
06:40 am

Coronavirus cases us 6.8%.
Coronavirus hospitalizations up 41.8%.
ICU bed availability down to 11.2%.

The Knox County Health Department reports

10.777 coronavirus cases and 495 probable cases.

That's 688 new cases in the past week,
That's a 6.8% increase over a week ago.

There are 61 Knox County COVID-19 patients currently hospitalized.
Eighteen more than a week ago.

There have been 86 total deaths in Knox County from COVID-19.
Two deaths due to COVID-19 in the past week.
That's a 2.4% increase in deaths in the past week (84 as of October 3).

5 in the 18-44 age group (6%)
20 in the 45-64 age group (23%)
21 in the 65-74 age group (24%)
40 in the 75+ age group (47%)

Tests conducted on Knox County residents are remain down,
3,880 week of Sept. 27, 3,790 week of Sept. 20, 4,223 week of Sept 13, 4,243 week of Sept. 6, 4,388 week of August 30, 3,660 week of August 23, 4,139 week of August 16, 4,150 week of August 9, 4,567 week of August 2, 4,412 week of July 19, 4,219 week of July 26 as compared to the higher number of tests done at the end of June and the first two weeks of July,
4,425 week of June 28, 5,401 week of July 5, 5,994 week of July 12.

As of October 6, 2020, ICU Bed availability is at 11.2%. (278 ICU beds total with 31 beds available) .
ICU bed availability is down over 6% as compared to two weeks ago.
(Note, the week of 9/1/2020, ICU bed capacity was 278, then the week of 9/8/2020, ICU bed capacity was raised to 374, then the week of Sept. 22 ICU bed capacity has been reduced back down to 278.)
(Note, prior to the 8/4/2020 report, ICU bed capacity was 272. It would appear that Knox County hospitals have increased ICU bed capacity by 6 beds.)

The County Health Department has a map with the number of coronavirus cases per zip code.
On October 1, 2020, these zip codes were reported with the most cases:
(last reported on September 24)

37918 has the most cases with 850 cases (population 44,476) (3.1% increase)
37916 with 845 cases (population 12,507) (3.1% increase)
37918 with 850 cases (population 44,476) (7.1% increase)
37920 with 794 cases (population 39,000) (5.3% increase)
37921 with 709 cases (population 28,000) (4.6% increase)
37919 with 560 cases (population 28,000) (3.9% increase)
37922 with 553 cases (population 41,539) (8.9% increase)
37917 with 502 cases (population 27,000) (5.0% increase)
37923 with 479 cases (population 30,000) (5.5% increase)

Be careful out there.

fischbobber's picture

Wow!

(link...)

Perhaps I'm not the only one turning into a numbers nerd trying to make sense of covid spread and how to get a handle on it. Look at this mornings new cases graph. There is an exact numerical correlation between the two super spreader event at county commission, as well as an away football game thrown in for good measure.

We knew football would be a challenge and have been discussing that in this forum at least as far back as June, but what I didn't foresee was the effect a small, organized, aggressive group of anti-maskers could have on the spread of covid. I found it interesting that before these results were known, when this assault on Knoxville was just an idea, one of its participants complained about being referred to as a terrorist. Theoretically, if they were terrorists, the numbers should have spiked 14 days after each commission spread event. Count the days. Everywhere else in the world refers to actions such as this as terrorism.

When do we get to stop calling them freedom fighters and address them as what they are?

bizgrrl's picture

Nearly 50% of coronavirus

Nearly 50% of coronavirus cases in Knox County are ages 11 to 30.

60% of coronavirus deaths in Knox County are ages 65+.

Please, young people, care about your elders.

Wear a mask! Social distance!

bizgrrl's picture

There has been a 14% increase

There has been a 14% increase in coronavirus hospitalizations in the past 3 days, from 61 to 70.

There have been 3 additional coronavirus deaths in the past 3 days.

fischbobber's picture

As the resident mad scientist......

I couldn't help but note that tonight is public comment night for the Board of Health meeting. Call Mayor Jacobs office if you wish to speak.

Our last three covid spikes have tracked exactly to spreader events, two commission meeting and our first football game. We should be getting the results of the effect of our first home football game Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Home games tend to be three day events and we should get a pretty good idea of the effect they are going to have, by studying the numbers from the Missouri game.

We should also begin some sort of specific tracking metric for the homeless population. Immediate urgency in circumstance is vital to both the homeless community and the county at large.While my anecdotal viewing of this situation suggests that those in the streets tend to be as good, if not better, than the general population, in wearing masks, at the very least we should be providing free masks to those currently without a home. Regardless of whether you believe my analysis, when one calls it and it happens, that analysis should at least be considered and proven or disproven by scientific method. We are now at a progression in this disease where it is widespread enough that super spreader events can be organized by assembling unmasked groups from areas of high concentration of this disease, like Halls. These are willful, weaponized events, and must be considered when coming up with strategies to battle covid.

Both deaths and hospitalizations are correlating to the start of UT's semester, the subsequent case spikes, and I might add, a period of late nights overflow crowds across town, but particularly on the strip. In other words, we've known this was coming, one just never wants to believe it's going to be as bad 6-8 weeks down the road as present circumstance suggests. Clearly, community spread and testing are at the heart of our issues and our challenge remains, how do we reduce that spread and its ancillary effects?

Look out for your fellow man. Wear a mask. Pay attention to the gameday numbers for Missouri before heading to the Kentucky game. The sad irony of our situation is that we are here because a small, dedicated army of folks has steadfastly refused to participate in a public health measure. Masks work, and while an N95 is still a lot of mask, a double mask (mask under a gaiter) might be a consideration for Saturday. If I was to take my son into that stadium, that would be something I'd consider. Look out for each other. Your health and welfare are dependent on others, just as theirs is dependent on yours. Please wear a mask.

Treehouse's picture

Meetings

Can you take the increased illness statistics and pass them out to the anti-maskers at the County Commission meeting? And maybe ask them if they know someone who got sick recently? I'd love to tie their protests to increased illnesses if that is the case. And maybe they'd realize they are endangering others.

fischbobber's picture

Bizgirl already does that.

If you track zip code statistics and cross reference them to the speakers home zip codes, you will find that 37918 and 37920 are misrepresented proportionately on both the speakers and attendance list, and that both zip code case numbers have now moved past 37916, an outcome that was viewed as unlikely 4-6 weeks ago.

Regardless of original intent or ongoing intent among participants, these organized mobs have now become super spreader events, and have weaponized the spread of covid to the point where intervention is required stop these events from becoming a means of transferring the disease.

There are several current theories opining on the obvious under reporting and causes of spread, most of which tie back together at spread events. People are only getting tested when they feel sick, and that is likely amplifying spreader events such as games and commission meetings. The variety of reasons people don't get tested appear to be over-ridden when one's own well being is at stake. The correlation of the numbers in undeniable. The reasons behind the correlation are being defined, and refined as information comes to the table.

Interestingly, hospitalizations, which have tracked 4-6 weeks behind infections and deaths which have tracked 6-8 are also holding true to predictive numbers. I counted back from today's numbers to the new case numbers 4-8 weeks ago. The good news is, we're due for a bit of stability if these numbers hold true. Remembering that our current plateau of active cases is quite a bit up from previous plateaus and that testing is down indicating a higher number of cases than reported, we should nonetheless see a downturn in hospitalizations in about a week and an overdue lull in deaths shortly thereafter. This won't last long but it will be a clear indicator of what strong , compliant adherence to public health policy, particularly masks and social distancing can do.

Interestingly, according to the economist's report and tax collection figures, our local economy is fluid and strong. Our unemployment rate is 6.5% (if I remember correctly from the meeting) and tax collections are up. Literally the only people complaining about regulations are those that would lift them to the detriment of the community at large. If Kyle Ward and his ideas of governance are allowed to run unchecked through commission, there will be a consumer market reaction that will run prominent local businessmen on the wrong side of this issue out of business. A redirection of consumer market spending will occur if his two ordinances pass.

Be safe. Care for your fellow man. Wear a mask. We will unite and overcome this challenge.

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